Sunday, January 26, 2014

Rafa vs Stan: The Final Fight at Australian Open '14

Pete Sampras was in the house at Rod Laver Arena watching the Federer-Nadal semifinal. He'll be staying for giving the Men's winners trophy this year. Anything significant? Pistol Pete post his retirement is not seen a lot in the box. He's enjoying his life away from Tennis. Still, he took an 18 hour flight on an invitation by Tennis Australia and we can only put two and two together to understand why he is here.

Last time he was seen watching was the final of Wimbledon 2009, where Federer was expected to make history by passing Pete. Today, Rafael Nadal is expected to match his record of staggering 14 Grand Slam titles. When Sampras retired in 2001, tennis experts believed that his record of 14 GS will hold for a long time to come. Unfortunately for him, just in about a dozen years, not one but two players have closed in/crossed his mark. In Wimby 2009 he watched an epic before giving the trophy, today he's least likely to witness anything of the sort.

No offense to Stanislas Wawrinka; he is a good man, a good player, the new Swiss No. 1, in great form currently but it is who he is facing makes this a one way affair. Welcome the Beast, Rafael Nadal, and this entire affair looks a mere formality before the trophy ceremony. 

Why Nadal will win? 

He is the biggest fighter the game has seen. Already cemented in the archives of Tennis, he has plenty left in his tank. He'll equal Pete Sampras' 14 titles if he wins today and will close the gap to only three from Federer. Enough motivation. About the game, he's playing as solid as ever and Wawrinka has zero experience at this level and is bound to be nervous. Rafa has lost only one set so far in the Quarters to Dimitrov before demolishing Federer. Nadal has never lost a Slam final to anybody named other than Djokovic or Federer. To top that, he holds a 12-0 lead in head to head vs Stan Wawrinka. And if all this is not enough, here comes another HUGE stat - Wawrinka has not only lost his all 12 meetings against Rafa, he has never ever been allowed to win even a set! 26-0 in Sets Played! 

Let's all feel a bit for Stan here. Of all people, he'll face this guy in his first ever Grand Slam Final.

What can Stan do?

Justify his new nick name. Moving from 'Stan the Man', he is now called 'the Stanimal' - from the wild, beasty strokes that have punched holes through all his previous opponents. He'll need it much more than ever today. Stan can play with a heart of a fighter and give his best shot here. He has nothing to lose, absolutely nothing cause he has never won anything from Nadal. With no reputation to defend at this level, no odds favouring him, nobody expected to hold him to guilt if he fails to challenge Nadal - he should play freely, go for his shots and take it from there. It may still not be enough though!

Result - Hopefully, Stan will win his first set against Rafa but the Spanish Bull will equal Pete Sampras today and will become the only player (third ever) after the Greats Rod Laver and Roy Emerson to win all four Grand Slams at least TWICE!

Friday, January 24, 2014

Roger Rafa No.33: Battle for the Greatest of All Time?

It's the magical Maestro vs the brutal Bull, the scintillating shot-maker vs the relentless retriever, the beautiful one handed backhand vs the effective two handed backhand, the most graceful glider vs the alpha athlete; it's the suave Roger Federer vs the rugged Rafael Nadal once again...!

Federer and Nadal 

As a teenager from Swiss mountains, Roger Federer was touted as the next big thing. In 2001 when he ousted the then Grand Slam leader Pete Sampras at his dominant Wimbledon grass, tennis pundits all around were speaking how good he is and how better he can be. Yet Federer made these people doubt themselves and took another two years to get his act together. Though once he arrived, he arrived like no other. He dominated the sport like no other. His style and elegance of movement was like no other. On grass and hard he was unbeatable, but on clay too he was no rookie like his famous predecessors. He was second best only to a bullish left hander from Spain. Federer is an artist at work and this artwork has taken him to a mightily dominant GS streak of 23 consecutive semi-finals and 36 consecutive quarter finals. At over 32 now, he is the Grand Slam leader with 17 titles, a 6 time year end championship winner and is widely considered the Greatest of All Time (GOAT) by many fans, pundits and players alike. Moreover, he isn't done.

While Federer was ascending, a child prodigy from the beaches of Majorca, Spain was also making waves. Rafael Nadal, coached by his uncle, a right hander playing with left, with an unorthodox whiplash of a forehand exposing bulging biceps and consequently raising eyebrows, was running around like a battery powered bunny beating players much more experienced than him. At 17, he beat Federer in their first meeting. At 19 Rafa was the French Open champion, in his first attempt and the first player ever to do so. In his heydays Rafa was considered by many as a clay court specialist and wasn't given much contention on hard courts and grass. Yet Nadal defies odds like no other. After years of being second best to Federer, he dethroned Federer from his beloved Wimbledon crown and the World No. 1 ranking. He went on to win all the Grand Slams initially thought to be beyond him. Still his brutal style of defensive retrieval is quite extreme and as a consequence his career has been marred with injuries. Yet at 27 yrs, he is a 13 time GS champion, almost God-like on Clay with 8 French Open Crowns (another first), already in the GOAT debate and has many years to add to it. 

The Rivalry

Roger and Rafa are five years apart in age. Technically in Tennis terms, that should not even be considered a rivalry. That's almost a next generation with a little bit of overlap between the two. Yet, Roger's late bloom and Rafa's early arrival has brought them together and gripped the tennis fans worldwide. Though there are other great match-ups in Djokovic-Nadal, Federer-Djokovic, Djokovic-Murray, Murray-Federer and Murray-Rafa but none like Roger and Rafa. Their contrasting demeanor's on court, contrasting styles of play and epic battles have captured imaginations beyond the usual. Statistically, it's lopsided. In past 32 meetings, Rafael Nadal came on top in 22. Nadal fans would say, "Rafa practically owns Federer." Federer hasn't defeated Nadal in Grand Slams since 2007 Wimbledon.

The Match-Up

This is a clear tactical advantage that Nadal holds. Match-ups have nothing to do with the debate of Who is a better player. Some match-ups suit one player more, some are headaches for several reasons. Nadal's play of bludgeoning heavy forehands to Federer's one handed backhand is one ploy that almost never fails to work on surface that have high bounce. It works on most of the courts around these days except for indoors and a handful of fast hard courts. To Roger's Superman, Rafa Nadal is a Kryptonite. Federer may fight no matter how strongly, he hasn't been able to solve this puzzle. Nadal is relentless in his ploy of forehand to backhand, Federer is a craftier who gets bored out of lack of options. Mentally, Nadal has a slight edge over Roger for the simple reason of H2H advantage build early on. If you win against someone touted as GOAT, and you beat him two times out of three, well confidence is a natural then. Yet head to head only gives the result of when two players played against each other (not how many times the one fails to meet the other), not the surfaces, conditions of play, levels of fitness/form of players, age of players, style and is therefore not the most objective indicator.

What's the hype all about when Nadal wins mostly?

Well, logically not much sense. Yet, Tennis matches are not won or lost on logic. Otherwise, Novak Djokovic would have been waiting in Finals and not a eighth seed Stanislas Wawrinka. 

Even when Rafael Nadal is as solid as possible since his return from injury last year, has won 2 slams out of 3 since his return last year, has never lost to Federer at the Australian Open; when Roger is now old in tennis terms, only World No. 6, has had a dismal 2013, has lost last 5 meetings to Nadal; still all hope of a great match is not lost. Federer but looks rejuvenated. He is serving well and moving well. He has traversed a tough draw. Yet, he has done so before and fallen to Nadal in Grand Slams.

Speculations can go either ways but it is the heart with which Champions fight is to be wished for and watched. Even after Nadal threatening to take Federer's place in the history, Federer has not left the game after losing close matches (a la Bjorn Borg). He knows he is way past his prime but loves playing and wants to fight. He comes back again and again to reach the stages where the two can contest. It might hurt Federer a lot to lose against Nadal but he keeps on doing what best he can do, bounce back and fight again. Taking out clay from equation, even the H2H does not look lopsided. It's almost even. Even footing against a five years younger opponent who is a bad match-up and who himself is one of the Greatest Ever, is to take a lot of heart from. And some inspiration can be drawn from the history this match is going to make for future records.

Today, one of them will stop the other from more glory but not without some serious resistance. This is legends fighting once again, this one is for ages and this one is not to to be missed!

Tuesday, January 21, 2014

Crashing Seeds at AO'14...

First, a not 100% Serena to Ana Ivanovic, then Maria Sharapova to an inspired Cibulkova, the top seeds Brian Brothers in doubles and today Novak Djokovic goes out to a Swiss who isn't even the famous one. Stan Wawrinka stood toe to toe with Novak Djokovic like last year but this year he did one better. He won the hearts last year and he grabbed the match this year. 

Seeing these upsets, the second round exit of Del Potro seem a long long time ago. He was scheduled to meet Rafa Nadal in the Quarters but will instead be replaced by a very talented Bulgarian in Grigor Dimitrov. I guess Nadal won't mind that replacement. However good, talented, future potential the 'baby Fed' may be; he is yet to prove himself at a GS level and Nadal is the ultimate challenge to have. Grigor may cause problems but taking the match in the best of five is unlikely.

Speculations at the time of the draw have fallen apart. How easy was Djokovic's draw to negotiate and how tough was Nadal, Murray and Federer's was the prime talk. Djokovic goes and either Stan Wawrinka or Tomas Berdych will be there in the Australian Open Final this year. Surely, Nadal has a huge advantage now. He is expected to outclass Dimitrov and wait for Murray and Federer to reduce each other to pieces before whosoever wins meets him in a battered state. Even otherwise, he will be favoured against an aging Roger Federer (whom he pretty much own these days) and Andy 'not so long ago injured' Murray (also owned by Rafa in Grand Slams).

Nadal might be the favourite with Novak gone but it ain't over till it's over. Nobody from Murray, Federer, Berdych, Wawrinka and Dimitrov can be discounted. They will all do their best but whose best is enough to hold the trophy this year, is to be seen.

Murray seems fit and recovered. He has lost just one set and seem to have plenty of reserves. However, a surprise development for many could be the easy win of Roger Federer over Jo Wilfried Tsonga. The famous and crowd favorite Swiss was in ominous form in his dismantling of the very dangerous Tsonga. The fickleness of Tennis pundits is such that he is even favored slightly over Murray in the Quarters tomorrow. Yet to make an impact Roger has to pass through a very tough draw, and guess what, if he fails to reach the AO finals this year Stan Wawrinka will overtake him as the No. 1 Swiss player. For that, Murray and then most probably Nadal has to be taken out. So no kindness here for One of the Greatest of All Time (GOAT), no sitting on past laurels, no aura of fear in the opponents... if he wants to do it he has to do it the hard way. Positives are that he seemed fit, back issues are not bothering, the new racquet seem to look more familiar and tactics with Stefan Edberg around are quite aggressive.

Murray has beaten Federer last year at AO but not before Federer took enough out of him and he couldn't challenge Novak as much as he would have liked. So, what would this year's theme would be if the winner is one of the following:
1. Tomas Berdych/Stanislas Wawrinka/Grigor Dimitrov - A First Time Champion/ Finally Arrived at the GS stage
2. Rafael Nadal - Strengthening the case of GOAT/Equaling Pete Sampras and only second behind Federer/Only player since Rod Laver and Roy Emerson to win twice at each GS
3. Andy Murray - Back with a Bang/ A dream return - a la Nadal/ Threat for the Year
4. Roger Federer - Return of the Champion/ Undisputed GOAT/ He isn't going nowhere

Plenty to watch out for yourselves in the last five days at Melbourne Park. For tomorrow, it's the following:
1. Rafael Nadal vs Grigor Dimitrov - Last Day Match; Around 9 AM IST
2. Roger Federer vs Andy Murray - Night Match; 2 PM IST

Have Fun!


Monday, January 6, 2014

New Year, New Season...New Champions?


A new year comes with new hopes and fresh determination. Since the new tennis season has already begun, and as the wise old saying goes, "well begun is half done", the players in the top tennis fraternity have already gotten off the blocks. The end of 2013 was only a beginning for what to expect in 2014, and to respond to the challenge of either to stay on top or to fight the odds to get there.

Speaking of ladies first, Serena Williams was and still is, almost unbeatable. The bigger the tournament, the less likely she is to lose. She is the one and only contender in the ladies section and with due respect, rest all are only challengers - and ironically even they don't seem to pose any kind of challenge. As if the bulldozing of 2013 was not enough to cement this fact, the younger Williams started the year 2014 by comfortably sweeping the field at the ATP 250 Brisbane International. And the field was full too. Serena overcame Maria Sharapova in the Semi's and Victoria Azarenka in the Finals with consummate ease in straight sets. Well, if these two cannot push her any significantly, God knows who can. Williams with 17 GS titles, and in her 20th year since turning pro, is gunning for more GS glory to overcome Martina Navaratilova (18) and Chris Evert (18), and to stand in the same stead of Steffi Graf (22) and Margret Court (24). Though Azarenka seemingly push her many a times, she has not yet found any winning formula. Maria, on the other hand, has just suffered her 14 consecutive defeat at the hand of Williams to make the pro tennis look childishly lopsided. She can only try. As of now, there seems to be no stopping her and if anybody other than her wins the Aussie Open, that in itself can be called a major shock. But actually, that's where a lot of glory lie.

In the ATP world, no man is as happy as Ms. Williams. Yet, many more fancy their chances than Maria and Vika. The resurgence of Rafael Nadal and dethroning of Novak Djokovic from World No. 1 has kind of renewed their rivalry once again. Djokovic has retained a 'Nadal-less' Australian Open but could not get his hands on the French (courtesy Nadal), nor Wimbledon (courtesy Murray) and faced a beat-down at his favourite Arthur Ashe arena, again by Nadal. Of course, some of the credit in these loses also goes to the lack of hunger and tentativeness Novak showed. Nadal surely is way too happy to have come back in a fairytale fashion (with steroid usage exclamations surrounding him), having one of the best years he has had in his decade long career. Rafa, with 13 titles, is now chasing Federer in the number of GS titles and the ever argued claim of best ever, and for that Novak is his biggest hurdle. But, Rafa has started 2014 by winning the Qatar Open and coming on top of some hard fought matches. Andy Murray seemed to come around for good last year after winning his 2nd GS title and 1st Wimbledon, but it was not to be. He could not retain the same motivation at the US Open and missed the last part of the season with a lingering back surgery. He returned in Doha as the second seed to Nadal, but found himself dumped in the second round by Florian Mayer. So, his level is still uncertain and he does not seem likely to give a Nadal-esque performance post injury. Djokovic, on the other hand, is firing on all cylinders post USO. He went undefeated post US Open and defeated Nadal twice; also extending Nadal's wait for the elusive Year End trophy to at least one more year.

The loss of US Open final has seemingly got Djokovic out of a deep slumber. His pride is hurt and he seem to be doing whatever he can to reach the summit again and hopefully to stay longer this time. In an unconventional and surprising move, Djokovic has signed former star Boris Becker as his new Head Coach, and one can definitely say that it is a weird move. Becker has so far zero experience at pro level coaching and was sitting in the commentary box post retirement. Nole's former coach Marian Vajda is retained for few not so important tournaments, when he seems to be doing perfectly well for Djokovic ever since turning pro. Yet, one thing is clear that Novak is shaking things up and getting out of his comfort zone to achieve greater goals this year. Aussie Open is the place where both Nole and Rafa would want to start by stamping their authorities and gain an advantage over the other for the rest of the year.

And well, it may be for the first time since 2003 that Roger Federer is not discussed in the list of possible contenders at the start of the year. Still a World No. 6, yet he seems to be on an unending slide. He has nothing to prove and yet he wishes to contest on. Federer had a significantly poor 2013 by his lofty standards and one cannot see how it can go worse in 2014. Federer also like Novak, though both are in very different phases of their careers, is shaking things up a lot to get his hands on a few more trophies and Grand Slams, if possible. He has severed ties with coach Paul Annacone and is currently working with Stefen Edberg, his childhood idol, on a trial basis. Moreover, he has committed to the new Wilson 98" racquet that he tried after Wimbledon last year, and will play with that stick henceforth. At over 32, Roger Federer retains his class and elegance for short spans and patches but does not seem to have the same feet movement and pin point precision of his prime. He lost the Brisbane Final yesterday to Lleyton Hewitt, a former champion but ranked 60 now and is also aged 32. Despite all that, he will be around this year and Wimbledon will be his best chance to rise both in confidence and number of GS titles. All said and done, we might just be watching the last days of another legend and that has to be savoured while it lasts.

Hopefully, Tennis this year will move ahead with the Stephens, Robsons, Del Potros, Gulbis', Janowiczs, Raonics, Dimitrovs and unheard names to topple the reigning order and to take the game to ever new heights. With the hope of New Year, the longing to see a New Season, to watch the tacticians in the New Coaches, to follow the battles reaching New Levels, let us join in the fun. 

Happy New Year 2014!